National Junior- A FGM evaluation and commentary- Part 1.

Ref: Here.

I have said above that Jimmy's evaluation is biased and it hides a hidden agenda. Lets see why I have said that.

To understand my viewpoint clearly we need to go back a little. So let us go back to the conversation I had with Zhuo Ren, Sumant and Mark during SEA games training at my home. There I tried to anchor a key concept of strategy with them. This is what I said. I told them that unless they have the weapons to beat the players lower rated than themselves, no strategy can be applied. By this I mean mental strength, discipline as well as correct openings. Lets see why.

You cannot climb up the ladder if you beat a player stronger than you and then lose to a player weaker than you. Look carefully. Is that where our Juniors are stalling?

The way forward is to have the weapons that can beat all players lower rated than you, have a weapon to draw against higher rated players and a special weapon to beat players stronger than you under the right circumstances. Then you have traction up the hill.

Mental strength and discipline aside, this means a more thorough investigation of openings. A major clue to this was when we analysed Li Tian's performance at NJ 2010. There we found that he was drawing too much and so could not reach the final play offs. So how does Li Tian win? He can win against stronger players simply because he has drawish weapons and his stronger opponents takes unreasonable risks, probably due to underestimation, to win against him.

But on the flip side, he is also hard pressed to win against lower rated players when his opponent is content with a draw. We saw this at NJ2010, we saw this in his game against Yit Ho in NC 2011 and I was told the same thing happened in his game against Roshan at NC 2012. He tried to win from a drawn position and lost. So this a problem that he will have to face when he tries to move up the ladder. This is the same problem that many of our seniors are facing. And that is why some of them have stalled and afraid of competition today. They went down the wrong road in the past by playing safe drawish openings and now with their high Fide ratings they cannot move forward without changing their openings and playing sharp lines and main line theories. And so they are now trapped by their own egos with so much wasted time.

But they still insist on taking our juniors down that failed road. And what they do to hide their wrong system is to do PR campaigns, not allow their players to play in certain tournaments that will show up their weakness and by putting down and attacking the juniors who are now changing direction and taking the proper routes.

But you know what? When the Juniors do that, correct their routes, they will take a hit in terms of Fide rating as they perfect their new weapons, they will lose some tournaments as they sharpen their new tools. But they will come out stronger in the end.

Think on this. If you want to beat Li Tian today, then the best strategy for the juniors is to fight for a draw and beat him in the tournament and not the game for the time being. He will draw one round too many against others if this strategy is applied and you can pip him in the tournament rankings if you have winning weapons against the rest.

Also consider this. What will happen to Li Tian if he tries for a GM run with his current weaponry, and what will happen to his Fide rating if he was to change his weaponry now? Isn't it better to do it the right way when you are still young and so succeed later? What are his adult advisers, the so called "M" trainers doing to him? Isn't that the reason why he was a no show at NJ 2011 and 2012? He is not the strongest Junior. His "trainers" know this after NJ2010. He has too many weaknesses. And the same weaknesses showed up again in NC2012. He is the product of a PR campaign to fulfil a hidden agenda. The strongest Juniors 2012 is Fong Yit San and Tan Li Ting. More later.

P2 coming soon.