Monday, March 7, 2011

Ceteris parabus

In systems analysis and scientific enquiry you will often come across this term in the starting analysis. Systems are complex often with mutiple changing variables. So we often start by studying the change of one variable and fix the rest. Hence ceteris paribus ie all other things being equal. Definition here.

Now look at this faulty analysis. Here.

What is wrong with this analysis? Look carefully.

Answer: It analyses the past and rolls it forward to a conclusion of the present and future. But it missed the main point. The model does not analyse the changed variable. What will be the impact of the changed variable of written selection or even proper selection criteria in the system?

Faulty analysis leads to faulty conclusions and faulty solutions. With proper selection criteria we should expect better participation in future Fide tournaments in Malaysia.

Note: Remember this analytical tool. It will be used over and over again in competitors analysis later.

No comments:

Post a Comment