Further Conspiracy Theory 2. Cont.

Ref: Here.

There was a comment on facebook by a former Junior that Li Tian is in a class of his own among the juniors. So let me talk a little about this first. We cannot underestimate the power of perception. Chess is a large part psychological. One thinking skill that I can recommend is to continually check our assumptions. For they are the building blocks of our conclusions. If you don't do that then even self evident facts may not be evident to you. Your filters are blocking you from seeing.

So to that Junior, I invite you to go and revisit the last 2 games that you played with Li Tian. Look at it objectively and without strong emotions and ask this question as we did. Did Li Tian win or did you lose the game?

We have reached our own conclusions but that is not material to you. The man you must now convince is the man in the mirror. Also cast your mind back to what you were saying before your game with Li Tian. Is it possible that you may have already lost in your mind before the game was even played?

Now back to conspiracy theory 2. At a higher level of the game we need to consider tournament strategy. And strategy can only be looked at after you have minimised blunders caused by your mind crashing. No easy feat by itself and that is why most players are still essentially hobbyists. When the emotions are better in check we look at questions like why we can beat one seemingly stronger player and lose to another who on paper (rating) is weaker. And until your understanding of this is more complete tournaments will essentially be hit or miss affairs.

And so I now submit that it is difficult for other juniors to beat Li Tian but not so difficult to draw with him. And so in a tournament all a strong player of around equal strength have to do is to fight for a draw unless a good opportunity presents itself for a win. Li Tian's drawish weapons will likely cause at least another draw along the way and he may not be among the front runners with win/lose weapons later in the tournament.

I think both Chin Seng and Jimmy know that. In a field that does not underestimate or overestimate him, that will be the likely outcome. And so according to my conspiracy theory they have chosen another route. They only allow Li Tian to play select tournament after scrutinising the field and then rely on PR exercises to push him forward to the senior level.

He is undoubtedly the strongest age group player but not yet the strongest junior. What does NC2012 show us? What did NJ 2010 tell us?

Also note that the Jimmy method also leads to a higher rating as opposed to those that train to win with strong and difficult weapons to wield. For to train that way means to take more risks to try for the win as judgement develops. So to be fair, both methods have their strengths and weaknesses. And that is also the point. None of the Juniors have completed their chess studies yet.

And so the claim of strongest Junior can only come from a competition and not rating. And the best test we have is the National Junior. And I think that is why Li Tian did not play NJ2011. If he did it will be more difficult to make that claim of strongest Junior before the fact if he does not do well.

My feedback was that there were moves to put Li Tian for SEA games. But that was thwarted by the selection and by a more urgent agenda with Greg. I believe he also didn't play at SEA games selection for the same reasons. In that field his true class would show up. And so his rating was publicised and he was tauted as the strongest Junior before Brunei even, almost in expectation of something happening there. That peeked my curiosity and so I asked 2 Internationally known trainers outside Malaysia to review the games Li Tian played with the GM's. And both came back and said the result was suspect.

And so I now also question if the entire team to the Olympiad is fraudulent except for Yee Weng in my eyes. But others may think differently. Li Tian is Presidents choice. And the rest didn't play at all at NC2012. So actually there was no selection at all.

What we are really teaching the kids here is that selection is not about chess. Selection is about the back door and PR campaigns. Isn't it? Ref: Here. See the comments. Read what Sumant said. He enlisted for NC2012 and then pulled out. And yet he asks why he isn't on the team? What did Sumant learn after winning his place at SEA games? What did Jimmy, Greg and friends teach him? Read this. Here.

So where is the incentive to improve our chess? And if our chess does not improve then where is that GM going to come from?

My conspiracy theory says we are all being conned. Weak IM's sent out to represent the Country when there may be better players in Malaysia. To represent you should be the best player at that point in time. Not from past glories and not from purported future potential. For all we know Li Tian may decide that chess is not his thing and go for maths instead. Selection must be about the here and now. Not fantasies. And it must be earned. Then we will give you the respect. But not before.

So is there a conspiracy? Does this theory hold? Did it have predictive qualities? What is your perception? Circumstantial again?